By Alex Bassil
UM News

MIAMI, Florida, (January 22, 2016)—Bryan Norcross, a senior hurricane specialist, at The Weather Channel who many Miamians fondly remember as “the voice who talked us through Hurricane Andrew,” opened the 21st annual “Sea Secrets—Exploring Our Oceans 2016” lecture series at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science on January 21 by sharing his experiences and a century’s worth of data and research on storms and the effects of El Niño.

Reminding the audience that social media did not exist when Hurricane Andrew hit, the longtime South Florida resident explored his belief that the proliferation of communications platforms will make it more difficult to motivate people living in a hurricane’s path to act and, if necessary, evacuate.

He described a communications paradox, resulting in the highly refined scientific capability to forecast a hurricane’s path but not exactly where the eye will hit. He believes the increasing number of ways to communicate has led to less-accurate information provided to an audience with shorter attention spans. He cited limited news resources and personnel, the lack of land phone lines, fewer credible sources, and more uninformed opinions disseminated about hurricanes and their paths as challenges.

“A dramatic improvement in forecasting science does not equal perfect forecasts,” Norcross said.

Sharing data from 1916 to the present in 50-year increments about hurricane activity and El Niño’s impact on the South Florida peninsula, he asked, “Is this related to climate change? Could this be a positive thing? We don’t know.”

Norcross suggests focusing more communications on the hurricane’s cone of probability, honing the message, and sending it from one source. He warned that younger generations accustomed to navigation apps cannot read a map to know if they are in an evacuation zone. He also warned that many residents haven’t been through a storm and, when the next one hits, the loss of cell phones and closed roadways will complicate the chaos.